Teb chaws Europe yuav dais lub Brunt ntawm luv-thiab ntev-ntev Timber lag luam kev cog lus vim yog tsov rog nyob rau hauv Ukraine. Daim Ntawv Ntim Kev Lag Luam Ntawv Nqe.

Hauv tsab ntawv tshaj tawm tsis ntev los no, Wood Resources International (WRI) tau kwv yees tias Tebchaws Europe yuav ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev lag luam ntoo luv luv thiab ntev ntev vim yog tsov rog hauv Ukraine. Lub koom haum kwv yees kev cuam tshuam rau lub ntiaj teb kev txav ntawm ntoo, ntoo, ntoo pellets, cav, ntoo chips, pulp thiab ntawv ntim, nrog rau cov teb chaws Europe, Tuam Tshoj thiab Asmeskas txhua tus yuav cuam tshuam.

01

European xwm txheej

Qhov cuam tshuam tam sim ntawm kev ua tsov rog hauv Ukraine thiab kev rau txim rau Russia tau "tso tseg" hauv hav zoov cov khoom xa tawm los ntawm Russia, Belarus thiab Ukraine, raws li World Resources Institute. Peb lub tebchaws yuav tshaj tawm txog ze li ntawm 25 feem pua ​​​​ntawm kev lag luam ntoo thoob ntiaj teb hauv xyoo 2021, nrog rau kev xa tawm ntawm cov khoom hav zoov muaj nqis txog $ 17 nphom hauv tib lub xyoo.

Txij li thaum muaj kev sib ntaus sib tua ntawm Ukrainian thaum Lub Ob Hlis 2022, feem ntau ntawm cov teb chaws Europe tau ua rau kev nplua nyiaj txiag rau Russia thiab Belarus, uas tau cuam tshuam kev xa khoom ntawm cov ntoo mus rau Tebchaws Europe. Tshwj xeeb tshaj yog, Russia, Belarus thiab Ukraine muab ze li ntawm 10 feem pua ​​​​ntawm tag nrho cov European xav tau cov ntoo ntoo hauv xyoo 2021, nrog kev xa tawm ntawm 8.5 lab cubic meters, WRI tau hais.

Hauv tsab ntawv tshaj tawm dhau los, Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam Hauv Ntiaj Teb tau kwv yees tias cov cav ntoo thiab ntoo ua lag luam hauv Tebchaws Europe yuav hloov pauv ntau xyoo tom ntej vim muaj ntau yam sib txuam. Cov ntoo sau qoob loo hauv Central Europe tau nce siab thiab xav tias yuav poob qis los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv tam sim no sai sai, uas tuaj yeem txhais tau tias thaj av ntawd yuav hloov mus rau hauv kev xa tawm ntawm cov cav ntoo. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, kev ua tsov ua rog hauv Ukraine yuav ua rau muaj kev tsis txaus ntseeg ntxiv ntawm kev lag luam ntws thiab cov khoom lag luam hav zoov.

Cov xwm txheej no yuav ua rau 4 feem pua ​​​​ntawm EBITDA poob rau European daim ntawv thiab cov khoom lag luam hav zoov, raws li Moody's. Lub Federation of European Wooden Pallet thiab Ntim Chaw Tsim Tshuaj (FEFPEB) tau taw qhia tias Estonia, Fabkis, Lub Tebchaws Yelemees, Hungary, Ltalis, Finland thiab Netherlands yog qee lub tebchaws feem ntau yuav hnov ​​​​qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev nruj ntawm cov khoom siv ntoo, raws li lawv muaj. tseem ceeb importers ntawm ntoo, kuj yog ib tug exporter ntawm cov khoom xws li ntoo pallets.

Hauv kev teb rau qhov kev sib tw no, WRI tau piav qhia tias European sawmills tuaj yeem hloov pauv cov khoom thauj txawv teb chaws mus rau European kev lag luam hauv lub sijhawm luv luv, uas tuaj yeem pab txo qis qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev poob qis los ntawm Russia, Belarus thiab Ukraine. Tsis tas li ntawd, kev lag luam txawv teb chaws loj xws li Tuam Tshoj, Tebchaws Meskas, Nyiv, thiab Middle East thiab North Africa (MENA) cheeb tsam muaj ntau yam kev xav tau ntawm cov khoom lag luam, kev lees txais tus nqi, kev hloov pauv tus nqi, kev ruaj ntseg thiab kev noj qab haus huv. Qhov kev hloov pauv hauv kev ua lag luam no tuaj yeem txhais tau tias cov khoom xa tawm hauv Tebchaws Europe tau xaiv txwv kev xa tawm txawv teb chaws kom haum rau cov khoom sib xyaw thiab kev pheej hmoo txaus ntshai, vim tias thaj av nrhiav kev txo cov kev sib tw rau cov khoom siv ntoo thiab hav zoov.

Raws li kev daws teeb meem mus sij hawm ntev, qee lub tuam txhab tsim khoom ntoo tuaj yeem txiav txim siab nqis peev hauv lub peev xwm tshiab. Txawm li cas los xij, raws li twb tau hais lawm, cov khoom siv log hauv ntau qhov chaw hauv Tebchaws Europe tau dhau los ua nruj, uas tuaj yeem ua rau qhov kev xaiv no nyuaj. Moody's tau hais tias cov kev sib tw ntsib cov ntawv thiab cov khoom lag luam hav zoov, xws li cov khoom lag luam tsis ruaj khov thiab cov nqi hluav taws xob nce, tuaj yeem ua rau qee lub mills hloov mus rau cov ntawv ntim khoom.

02

kev sib tw thoob ntiaj teb

Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev ua tsov rog Ukrainian rau kev lag luam hav zoov tsis txwv rau Tebchaws Europe. Lub teb chaws thiab cheeb tsam xws li Tebchaws Meskas, Canada, Nyiv, Taiwan, Australia thiab New Zealand tau txiav txim rau Russia. Yog li ntawd, cov ntoo xa khoom mus rau qee qhov chaw sab nraum Tebchaws Europe kuj tau nres, rov nthuav qhia qhov kev sib tw zoo sib xws ntawm cov khoom siv nruj.

Txawm hais tias qee lub tebchaws tau xaiv tsis txwv kev rau txim rau Russia, cov tuam txhab Lavxias thiab Belarusian tau pom tias muaj teeb meem los ua kev lag luam nyiaj txiag thiab nkag mus rau credit vim muaj kev txwv rau lwm qhov. Yog li ntawd, kev xa tawm ntawm cov hav zoov thiab cov khoom ntoo zoo li yuav qeeb txawm tias mus rau cov tebchaws uas txuas ntxiv ua lag luam nrog Russia.

Tsis tas li ntawd, ntoo hauv tebchaws Russia thiab Belarus yog tam sim no suav tias yog "kev sib cav ntoo". Qhov no txhais tau hais tias nws tsis tuaj yeem siv rau hauv PEFC lossis FSC cov khoom muaj ntawv pov thawj, ua rau cov khoom siv ntoo thiab hav zoov tsis muaj zog ntxiv hauv cov tebchaws no.

Lub koom haum World Resources hais tias Lavxias sawmills yog lub hauv paus tseem ceeb ntawm cov ntoo uas tau los rau Tebchaws Europe thiab tsis tuaj yeem hloov mus sai lossis yooj yim hloov mus rau kev lag luam uas tsis raug rau txim rau lub sijhawm luv. Thaum Tuam Tshoj, uas tseem tsis tau txiav txim siab rau Russia, lees txais txog 47 feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov ntoo ntoo xa tawm los ntawm Russia, Belarus thiab Ukraine, muaj kev sib tw logistical kom tau ntoo los ntawm qaum teb sab hnub poob Russia mus rau Tuam Tshoj los ntawm nkoj lossis tsheb ciav hlau.

Yog li ntawd, kev tsov rog Ukraine tau muaj kev cuam tshuam tag nrho rau lub ntiaj teb cov ntoo thiab cov khoom lag luam hav zoov. Nrog rau qhov cuam tshuam yuav xav tau thoob ntiaj teb, uas tuaj yeem cuam tshuam txoj hauv kev hauv cheeb tsam xws li Europe sim teb hauv zos, WRI kwv yees tias kev cuam tshuam yuav raug cuam tshuam rau lub sijhawm txuas ntxiv.

03

Qhov no txhais li cas rau kev lag luam ntim ntawv?

WRI tau sau tseg tias qhov cuam tshuam ntawm cov khoom siv ntoo nruj tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi, muaj thiab cov khoom siv rau cov ntoo pallets, cov khoom siv ntoo thiab cov ntawv. Raws li FEFPEB, cov khoom ntawm cov ntoo pallets hauv Tebchaws Europe tuaj yeem nyob rau hauv qhov loj thiab nce siab vim yog tsov rog hauv Ukraine. Qee lub tebchaws tau hais tias muaj txog li 25 feem pua ​​​​ntawm lawv cov pallet thiab ntim ntoo los ntawm Russia, Belarus thiab Ukraine. Ntoo pallets yog qhov yuav tsum tau ua tseem ceeb rau kev txav ntawm ntau yam khoom thoob ntiaj teb, uas tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam ntxiv rau cov khoom ntws raws li cov khoom siv thoob ntiaj teb txuas ntxiv mus.

Raws li rau pulp thiab ntawv, qhov cuam tshuam yuav nyob ntawm daim ntawv thov. Raws li Moody's, lub thawv ntim kev lag luam tau siv tus nqi nce xyoo tas los los cuam tshuam cov nqi nkag tau nce. Cov nyiaj tau los rau ntu no ntawm kev lag luam ntoo thiab hav zoov tuaj yeem tshaj tawm txog 6 feem pua ​​​​ntawm 12 lub hlis tom ntej. Txawm li cas los xij, Moody's kuj tau taw qhia tias cov nyiaj tau los thoob plaws hauv kev lag luam yuav poob qis thiab qhov kev loj hlob hauv kev lag luam ntim ntawv yuav tsis txaus los cuam tshuam cov kev poob qis hauv lwm qhov chaw. Thaum Cepi tshaj tawm tias daim ntawv thiab lub rooj tsavxwm kev lag luam yog "rov qab" los ntawm cov kev cov nyom ntawm Covid-19 kev sib kis, nws piav qhia tias txawm tias ua ntej Ukraine ua tsov ua rog, cov khoom siv thiab kev thov rau cov ntaub ntawv xws li pulp ntsib qhov tsis paub tseeb.

Txij li thaum Cepi tau sau ntawv mus rau European Commission thov kev pab rau cov ntawv thiab cov ntaub so ntswg kev lag luam thaum muaj nqi nce. Kev ua lag luam qeeb qeeb ntawm European daim ntawv mills hem cov haujlwm ntawm ntau dua 4 lab tus tib neeg, thaum cov khoom ntim ntawv siv los thauj thiab xa cov kev lag luam tseem ceeb hauv qab xws li zaub mov thiab tshuaj tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev kub ntxhov, pab pawg tau hais. Cepi txoj kev hu xov tooj rau kev lag luam kom suav tias yog qhov tseem ceeb kom nws tuaj yeem "muaj sia nyob" qhia tias cov kev sib tw tam sim no thiab qhov tshwm sim tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam loj rau cov ntoo, cov khoom siv hav zoov thiab kev lag luam ntim khoom nyob ib sab.